Soybean prices rose, despite USDA experts increasing forecasts of soybean production and stocks in FY 2024/25

The new 2024/25 soybean balance sheet, released in WASDE's May supply and demand report, sharply raised forecasts for global soybean production, consumption, exports and stocks. But this did not lead to a drop in prices, as traders took into account the rise in wheat prices and a decrease in the forecast of soybean stocks in FY 2023/24 by 2.44 to 111.78 million tons due to an increase in the consumption forecast by 2.45 to 383.5 million At the same time, analysts estimated reserves at 112.35 million tons.

The soybean harvest forecast in 2023/24 FY for Brazil was reduced by 1 to 154 million tons (162 million tons in FY 2022/23 FY), and for Argentina to 50 (25) million tons, while analysts estimated them at 152.6 and 49.6 million tons, respectively.

Compared to the balance for 2023/24 MY, the new soybean balance for 2024/25 MY has undergone the following changes:

• The estimate of initial reserves has been increased to 111.78 mln t (100.53 mln t in FY 2023/24) as a result of production adjustments in 2022/23 and t2023/24 FY.
• The global production forecast was increased to 422.26 (396.95) million tons, in particular for the USA – to 121.1 (113.34) million tons, Argentina – to 51 (50) million tons, Brazil – to a record 169 (154) million tons against the background of an increase in the area of sowing thanks to the high profitability of cultivation.
• The estimate of world consumption was increased to 401.74 (383.53) million tons, in particular for the USA - by 3 to 69 million tons thanks to the increase in processing volumes, Argentina - by 4.85 to 47.6 million tons, Brazil - by 0.25 up to 58.1 million tons.
• The global export forecast was increased to 180.2 (172.47) million tons, in particular for the USA - up to 49.7 (46.27) million tons, Brazil - up to 105 (102) million tons, Argentina - up to 5.5 (4 .6) million tons, Ukraine - up to 3.5 (3.1) million tons.
• The global import forecast was increased to 176.4 (170.3) million tons, in particular for China - by 4 million tons to a record 109 million tons, as well as for Pakistan, Egypt, Mexico, Iran and Vietnam.
• The estimate of global ending stocks was raised to 128.5 (111.78; 99.7 and 100.3) million tons, although analysts estimated them at 120.87 million tons. Estimates were raised for the United States, Brazil, Argentina and China.

According to the report, July soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange rose by 0.9% to $447.9/t (+5.1% compared to the data after the release of the report in April), and November - by 0.4 % to $443/t (+3.6%), which became cheaper than futures for the old harvest.

The world production of rapeseed in 2024/25 MR is forecast at the level of 88.34 million tons (88.39 million tons in 2023/24 MR), since the harvest in the EU will decrease to 19 (20) million tons, in Ukraine - to 3.7 (4 ,4) million tons, India - up to 15.1 (15.5) million tons will be compensated by an increase in Canada to 19.6 (18.8) million tons, China - up to 15.6 (15.4) million tons and Australia - up to 6.5 (5.7) million tons.

USDA experts estimated world rapeseed trade in 2024/25 at 17.6 (16.7) million tons, in particular, exports from Australia will grow by 0.8 to 5.4 million tons, Canada - by 0.3 to 6.9 million t, while from Ukraine will decrease by 0.1 to 3.3 million t.