Urea prices fell to 10-month lows and will continue to fall in line with gas prices

June natural gas futures on New York's Nymex have surged 23% to a 3.5-month high on the back of escalation in the Middle East and cold weather in the U.S. since early May, but were down 1.55% yesterday ( -37% per year) due to rising temperatures and increasing production.

Gas prices at the TTF hub (Netherlands) against the background of a warm winter in Europe during January-February of this year fell by 43% to a 3.5-year low, slightly recovered in March, and from April 1 to 16 rose by 29% to a maximum this year, the value follows oil prices. But as of May 14, they fell by 14% to €29.68 per MWh, which is 8% lower than last year's level.

World prices for mineral fertilizers are falling along with natural gas prices, which will soon affect their prices in Ukraine.

According to IA Infoindustry, there is a decrease in demand for fertilizers in Ukraine, and at the end of May, batches of imported fertilizers from Turkmenistan will arrive in the country. In the EU, fertilizer prices also remain under pressure from low demand in the current season and a small number of contracts for next season. Currently, the situation on the market is similar to that of July 2023, when due to the collapse of prices, sellers were forced to stop production.

During the week, urea prices in Northwest Europe fell by €30/t to €300-340/t FCA bulk. Traders open short positions for the new season, which indicates the expectation of a further drop in prices.

Egypt, the countries of the Middle East and the Baltics remain the main suppliers of fertilizers to the EU.

Prices for poured urea remain quite stable, given the lack of offers for industry. Prices for poured urea in the Persian Gulf have eased to $268-275/t FOB, but they are still above prices of $245-260/t FOB in the Baltics.